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验证结果

UT Bot ATR跟踪止损策略:90段57段盈利,中位+4.5%,最深回撤29.2%。

公开分享BTCUSDT · 1hcrypto
测的是什么策略
UT Bot ATR跟踪止损策略

赌均线趋势延续:上穿均线进场、下穿离场,并用ATR过滤低波动;震荡市反复穿越会连续止损。

ATR周期 10止损(%) 2

测试所用仓位均为固定仓位(每次投入固定金额),而非 all-in 复利仓位:盈利后不会自动加大投入,亏损后投入受可用资金限制。请据此解读上面的数字。

UT Bot ATR跟踪止损策略在BTCUSDT 1h的90次切法回测中,57/90段盈利,段收益中位+4.5%,最深回撤29.2%,爆仓0段。但同期买入持有各段收益均值+32.3%,中位段收益只有+4.5%,多数切法下它没有跑赢什么都不做。它是一套在趋势段放大收益、在震荡段被反复磨损的趋势跟踪系统。 数据摊开:段收益中位+4.5%,最高+67.8%,最低-15.6%;盈利段57/90。最好段第11轮第1段2023-09-01→2024-03-13,收益+67.8%,该段回撤12.2%;最差段第4轮第3段2024-08-01→2025-03-14,收益-15.6%,该段回撤25.0%。单笔平均盈利$1,265,单笔平均亏损$438,盈利端厚于亏损端。这说明它不是靠高胜率,而是靠少数趋势段的大盈利覆盖多数小亏损。 它赌趋势一旦形成会延续。ATR跟踪止损在价格朝有利方向走时跟随移动,让盈利奔跑;反向时尽快截断亏损。所以单边、波动放大且方向明确的行情最舒服,最好段+67.8%且该段回撤12.2%就是例证。反过来,震荡、低波动时ATR止损会被反复触发,单笔平均亏损$438虽小,次数一多仍会侵蚀段收益。弱点因此集中在震荡市、低波动和参数敏感。 盈利段57/90,说明仍有相当比例切法亏损;最差段-15.6%且该段回撤25.0%,全样本最深回撤29.2%,连续止损或趋势反转时回撤会放大。参数上,atr_period、atr_multiplier、ma_period、interval、position_size原文没有给出,是按行业惯例填的,其余照搬原文。所以本次只代表这组填充参数,不能证明原策略在其他参数下也一样。 方法局限:90次回测是同一份数据的90个不同切法,不是90个独立样本;切成6个不重叠窗口、重复15轮,每轮随机抖动边界,随机种子已落库,同一seed可复现相同切分。但切法再多,也改变不了样本重叠和区间覆盖有限。与买入持有各段收益均值+32.3%相比,策略中位+4.5%更低,最高+67.8%只代表少数切法。读者最该看盈利段57/90、中位+4.5%对买入持有均值+32.3%、最深回撤29.2%。 本内容为历史数据的复现验证,不构成投资建议,本平台不推荐、不评级、不排名。

两段对比

同一个策略的 90 个时间窗里,收益最高的那一段与回撤最大的那一段并排。两张图用同一刻度 —— 如果一条平滑、一条锯齿,那是策略本身不稳定,不是画法问题。

收益最高段

R11·S1段收益 +67.8%最大回撤 12.0%457 笔

2023-09-01 → 2024-03-13

图上显示 1d(策略跑在 1h,每 24 根合并,原始 4680 根)。

回撤最大段

R4·S3段收益 -15.6%最大回撤 23.8%504 笔

2024-08-01 → 2025-03-14

图上显示 1d(策略跑在 1h,每 24 根合并,原始 5406 根)。

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汇总

段收益中位
4.5%
最高段收益
67.8%
最低段收益
-15.6%
最深回撤(90 段里最深)
29.2%
盈利时段
57 / 90
是否出现过强平
无
单笔平均盈利($)
$1,265
单笔平均亏损($)
$438

分段明细

同一份数据切成若干个等长且互不重叠的时段,每段各跑一遍,按顺序连续编号(1–90)。没有任何一段是事后挑出来的。

段起止年化收益最大回撤交易数胜率
12023-09-012024-04-03110.4%12.2%49924.6%
22024-04-032024-08-1726.7%12.5%29528.1%
32024-08-172025-02-26-27.0%24.4%44227.4%
42025-02-262025-09-1155.7%11.7%42431.4%
52025-09-112026-05-158.4%16.8%51928.1%
62026-05-152026-10-05-15.5%24.8%32626.1%
72023-09-012024-03-06142.8%12.2%44123.8%
82024-03-062024-09-11-13.6%23.6%41128.0%
92024-09-112025-02-24-10.1%24.3%38327.7%
102025-02-242025-11-0439.3%13.0%54430.9%
112025-11-042026-04-0910.5%16.8%32528.0%
122026-04-092026-10-05-7.5%29.2%40026.8%
132023-09-012024-01-2236.4%10.8%35322.7%
142024-01-222024-09-0462.5%20.9%48427.9%
152024-09-042025-02-03-0.3%24.3%33928.6%
162025-02-032025-09-2930.1%13.0%52130.5%
172025-09-292026-05-0612.8%16.8%46128.2%
182026-05-062026-10-05-19.0%26.3%34526.1%
192023-09-012024-03-29130.2%12.2%49124.2%
202024-03-292024-08-0152.1%10.0%27129.2%
212024-08-012025-03-14-24.0%25.0%50428.2%
222025-03-142025-09-0834.3%11.6%38930.3%
232025-09-082026-03-083.4%16.8%37927.2%
242026-03-082026-10-05-2.5%29.2%47027.7%
252023-09-012024-03-03105.8%12.2%43923.7%
262024-03-032024-09-02-5.1%20.6%39527.8%
272024-09-022025-03-22-4.5%25.0%44928.7%
282025-03-222025-08-2277.7%11.1%33330.9%
292025-08-222026-04-210.4%16.8%51227.9%
302026-04-212026-10-05-16.3%29.2%37626.6%
312023-09-012024-03-04125.0%12.2%43923.7%
322024-03-042024-10-22-3.1%23.6%50428.0%
332024-10-222025-04-2642.8%25.0%40630.8%
342025-04-262025-09-21-3.9%11.7%32929.9%
352025-09-212026-05-129.5%16.8%49327.8%
362026-05-122026-10-05-14.7%25.7%33126.0%
372023-09-012024-02-1169.1%12.2%39323.2%
382024-02-112024-10-1440.8%23.6%52828.2%
392024-10-142025-02-20-20.6%24.3%30127.9%
402025-02-202025-10-0552.6%13.0%49031.2%
412025-10-052026-05-090.6%16.8%45827.5%
422026-05-092026-10-05-15.4%25.7%33526.3%
432023-09-012024-03-04135.3%12.2%43923.7%
442024-03-042024-09-07-9.7%23.6%40627.8%
452024-09-072025-02-25-6.9%24.3%39027.9%
462025-02-252025-09-0555.1%11.2%41131.4%
472025-09-052026-04-2514.9%16.8%49127.9%
482026-04-252026-10-05-18.0%27.3%36727.0%
492023-09-012024-04-03109.9%12.2%49924.6%
502024-04-032024-09-187.8%23.6%36827.4%
512024-09-192025-02-24-22.5%24.3%36727.8%
522025-02-242025-10-0155.6%13.0%46831.4%
532025-10-012026-03-05-4.4%16.8%32826.8%
542026-03-052026-10-05-3.9%29.2%47527.6%
552023-09-012024-02-2659.6%12.2%42723.4%
562024-02-262024-10-0916.3%23.6%48428.0%
572024-10-092025-04-2739.6%25.0%44230.3%
582025-04-282025-08-310.1%11.1%28329.3%
592025-08-312026-04-2414.4%16.8%49828.1%
602026-04-242026-10-05-19.2%27.3%37026.8%
612023-09-012024-03-13163.4%12.2%45724.1%
622024-03-142024-08-241.5%14.6%35528.5%
632024-08-242025-04-07-9.8%25.0%49729.4%
642025-04-072025-10-1917.8%13.0%43728.8%
652025-10-192026-04-133.9%16.8%36927.9%
662026-04-132026-10-05-15.1%29.2%39026.7%
672023-09-012024-04-02110.6%12.2%49724.5%
682024-04-022024-08-2221.7%14.6%30828.6%
692024-08-222025-04-101.8%25.0%51029.4%
702025-04-102025-08-2624.2%11.1%30729.0%
712025-08-262026-05-155.5%16.8%55428.7%
722026-05-152026-10-05-15.5%24.8%32626.1%
732023-09-012024-03-16134.1%12.2%46423.7%
742024-03-162024-09-12-6.7%23.6%38828.4%
752024-09-122025-02-0612.7%24.3%33128.4%
762025-02-062025-10-2529.8%13.0%57430.7%
772025-10-252026-03-13-8.7%16.8%28826.4%
782026-03-132026-10-05-1.8%29.2%45827.5%
792023-09-012024-03-28132.4%12.2%48924.3%
802024-03-282024-08-0418.1%10.0%28028.2%
812024-08-042025-04-306.3%25.0%59029.3%
822025-04-302025-10-277.6%13.0%40329.8%
832025-10-272026-04-04-14.3%16.8%33327.0%
842026-04-042026-10-050.4%29.2%40926.7%
852023-09-012024-02-2170.9%12.2%41723.5%
862024-02-222024-10-2429.3%23.6%53128.1%
872024-10-242025-03-31-0.1%25.0%35129.1%
882025-03-312025-11-0622.7%13.0%48729.8%
892025-11-062026-05-1019.6%16.8%38328.2%
902026-05-102026-10-05-15.4%25.7%33526.3%

可复现性

数据区间
2023-09-01 → 2026-10-05
轮数 × 段数
15 轮 × 6 段 = 90 次回测
随机种子
d9195c4038dd
数据版本
438f@202610070238
引擎版本
2026.10.02-contract-v2
发布时间
2026-10-07

基于历史数据的模拟。它描述的是这套规则过去会怎么做,而不是将来会怎么做。不构成投资建议 —— 本站不推荐、不评级、不排名任何策略。