UT Bot ATR跟踪止损策略:90段57段盈利,中位+4.5%,最深回撤29.2%。
赌均线趋势延续:上穿均线进场、下穿离场,并用ATR过滤低波动;震荡市反复穿越会连续止损。
测试所用仓位均为固定仓位(每次投入固定金额),而非 all-in 复利仓位:盈利后不会自动加大投入,亏损后投入受可用资金限制。请据此解读上面的数字。
UT Bot ATR跟踪止损策略在BTCUSDT 1h的90次切法回测中,57/90段盈利,段收益中位+4.5%,最深回撤29.2%,爆仓0段。但同期买入持有各段收益均值+32.3%,中位段收益只有+4.5%,多数切法下它没有跑赢什么都不做。它是一套在趋势段放大收益、在震荡段被反复磨损的趋势跟踪系统。 数据摊开:段收益中位+4.5%,最高+67.8%,最低-15.6%;盈利段57/90。最好段第11轮第1段2023-09-01→2024-03-13,收益+67.8%,该段回撤12.2%;最差段第4轮第3段2024-08-01→2025-03-14,收益-15.6%,该段回撤25.0%。单笔平均盈利$1,265,单笔平均亏损$438,盈利端厚于亏损端。这说明它不是靠高胜率,而是靠少数趋势段的大盈利覆盖多数小亏损。 它赌趋势一旦形成会延续。ATR跟踪止损在价格朝有利方向走时跟随移动,让盈利奔跑;反向时尽快截断亏损。所以单边、波动放大且方向明确的行情最舒服,最好段+67.8%且该段回撤12.2%就是例证。反过来,震荡、低波动时ATR止损会被反复触发,单笔平均亏损$438虽小,次数一多仍会侵蚀段收益。弱点因此集中在震荡市、低波动和参数敏感。 盈利段57/90,说明仍有相当比例切法亏损;最差段-15.6%且该段回撤25.0%,全样本最深回撤29.2%,连续止损或趋势反转时回撤会放大。参数上,atr_period、atr_multiplier、ma_period、interval、position_size原文没有给出,是按行业惯例填的,其余照搬原文。所以本次只代表这组填充参数,不能证明原策略在其他参数下也一样。 方法局限:90次回测是同一份数据的90个不同切法,不是90个独立样本;切成6个不重叠窗口、重复15轮,每轮随机抖动边界,随机种子已落库,同一seed可复现相同切分。但切法再多,也改变不了样本重叠和区间覆盖有限。与买入持有各段收益均值+32.3%相比,策略中位+4.5%更低,最高+67.8%只代表少数切法。读者最该看盈利段57/90、中位+4.5%对买入持有均值+32.3%、最深回撤29.2%。 本内容为历史数据的复现验证,不构成投资建议,本平台不推荐、不评级、不排名。
两段对比
同一个策略的 90 个时间窗里,收益最高的那一段与回撤最大的那一段并排。两张图用同一刻度 —— 如果一条平滑、一条锯齿,那是策略本身不稳定,不是画法问题。
收益最高段
2023-09-01 → 2024-03-13
图上显示 1d(策略跑在 1h,每 24 根合并,原始 4680 根)。
回撤最大段
2024-08-01 → 2025-03-14
图上显示 1d(策略跑在 1h,每 24 根合并,原始 5406 根)。
汇总
- 段收益中位
- 4.5%
- 最高段收益
- 67.8%
- 最低段收益
- -15.6%
- 最深回撤(90 段里最深)
- 29.2%
- 盈利时段
- 57 / 90
- 是否出现过强平
- 无
- 单笔平均盈利($)
- $1,265
- 单笔平均亏损($)
- $438
分段明细
同一份数据切成若干个等长且互不重叠的时段,每段各跑一遍,按顺序连续编号(1–90)。没有任何一段是事后挑出来的。
| 段 | 起 | 止 | 年化收益 | 最大回撤 | 交易数 | 胜率 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2023-09-01 | 2024-04-03 | 110.4% | 12.2% | 499 | 24.6% |
| 2 | 2024-04-03 | 2024-08-17 | 26.7% | 12.5% | 295 | 28.1% |
| 3 | 2024-08-17 | 2025-02-26 | -27.0% | 24.4% | 442 | 27.4% |
| 4 | 2025-02-26 | 2025-09-11 | 55.7% | 11.7% | 424 | 31.4% |
| 5 | 2025-09-11 | 2026-05-15 | 8.4% | 16.8% | 519 | 28.1% |
| 6 | 2026-05-15 | 2026-10-05 | -15.5% | 24.8% | 326 | 26.1% |
| 7 | 2023-09-01 | 2024-03-06 | 142.8% | 12.2% | 441 | 23.8% |
| 8 | 2024-03-06 | 2024-09-11 | -13.6% | 23.6% | 411 | 28.0% |
| 9 | 2024-09-11 | 2025-02-24 | -10.1% | 24.3% | 383 | 27.7% |
| 10 | 2025-02-24 | 2025-11-04 | 39.3% | 13.0% | 544 | 30.9% |
| 11 | 2025-11-04 | 2026-04-09 | 10.5% | 16.8% | 325 | 28.0% |
| 12 | 2026-04-09 | 2026-10-05 | -7.5% | 29.2% | 400 | 26.8% |
| 13 | 2023-09-01 | 2024-01-22 | 36.4% | 10.8% | 353 | 22.7% |
| 14 | 2024-01-22 | 2024-09-04 | 62.5% | 20.9% | 484 | 27.9% |
| 15 | 2024-09-04 | 2025-02-03 | -0.3% | 24.3% | 339 | 28.6% |
| 16 | 2025-02-03 | 2025-09-29 | 30.1% | 13.0% | 521 | 30.5% |
| 17 | 2025-09-29 | 2026-05-06 | 12.8% | 16.8% | 461 | 28.2% |
| 18 | 2026-05-06 | 2026-10-05 | -19.0% | 26.3% | 345 | 26.1% |
| 19 | 2023-09-01 | 2024-03-29 | 130.2% | 12.2% | 491 | 24.2% |
| 20 | 2024-03-29 | 2024-08-01 | 52.1% | 10.0% | 271 | 29.2% |
| 21 | 2024-08-01 | 2025-03-14 | -24.0% | 25.0% | 504 | 28.2% |
| 22 | 2025-03-14 | 2025-09-08 | 34.3% | 11.6% | 389 | 30.3% |
| 23 | 2025-09-08 | 2026-03-08 | 3.4% | 16.8% | 379 | 27.2% |
| 24 | 2026-03-08 | 2026-10-05 | -2.5% | 29.2% | 470 | 27.7% |
| 25 | 2023-09-01 | 2024-03-03 | 105.8% | 12.2% | 439 | 23.7% |
| 26 | 2024-03-03 | 2024-09-02 | -5.1% | 20.6% | 395 | 27.8% |
| 27 | 2024-09-02 | 2025-03-22 | -4.5% | 25.0% | 449 | 28.7% |
| 28 | 2025-03-22 | 2025-08-22 | 77.7% | 11.1% | 333 | 30.9% |
| 29 | 2025-08-22 | 2026-04-21 | 0.4% | 16.8% | 512 | 27.9% |
| 30 | 2026-04-21 | 2026-10-05 | -16.3% | 29.2% | 376 | 26.6% |
| 31 | 2023-09-01 | 2024-03-04 | 125.0% | 12.2% | 439 | 23.7% |
| 32 | 2024-03-04 | 2024-10-22 | -3.1% | 23.6% | 504 | 28.0% |
| 33 | 2024-10-22 | 2025-04-26 | 42.8% | 25.0% | 406 | 30.8% |
| 34 | 2025-04-26 | 2025-09-21 | -3.9% | 11.7% | 329 | 29.9% |
| 35 | 2025-09-21 | 2026-05-12 | 9.5% | 16.8% | 493 | 27.8% |
| 36 | 2026-05-12 | 2026-10-05 | -14.7% | 25.7% | 331 | 26.0% |
| 37 | 2023-09-01 | 2024-02-11 | 69.1% | 12.2% | 393 | 23.2% |
| 38 | 2024-02-11 | 2024-10-14 | 40.8% | 23.6% | 528 | 28.2% |
| 39 | 2024-10-14 | 2025-02-20 | -20.6% | 24.3% | 301 | 27.9% |
| 40 | 2025-02-20 | 2025-10-05 | 52.6% | 13.0% | 490 | 31.2% |
| 41 | 2025-10-05 | 2026-05-09 | 0.6% | 16.8% | 458 | 27.5% |
| 42 | 2026-05-09 | 2026-10-05 | -15.4% | 25.7% | 335 | 26.3% |
| 43 | 2023-09-01 | 2024-03-04 | 135.3% | 12.2% | 439 | 23.7% |
| 44 | 2024-03-04 | 2024-09-07 | -9.7% | 23.6% | 406 | 27.8% |
| 45 | 2024-09-07 | 2025-02-25 | -6.9% | 24.3% | 390 | 27.9% |
| 46 | 2025-02-25 | 2025-09-05 | 55.1% | 11.2% | 411 | 31.4% |
| 47 | 2025-09-05 | 2026-04-25 | 14.9% | 16.8% | 491 | 27.9% |
| 48 | 2026-04-25 | 2026-10-05 | -18.0% | 27.3% | 367 | 27.0% |
| 49 | 2023-09-01 | 2024-04-03 | 109.9% | 12.2% | 499 | 24.6% |
| 50 | 2024-04-03 | 2024-09-18 | 7.8% | 23.6% | 368 | 27.4% |
| 51 | 2024-09-19 | 2025-02-24 | -22.5% | 24.3% | 367 | 27.8% |
| 52 | 2025-02-24 | 2025-10-01 | 55.6% | 13.0% | 468 | 31.4% |
| 53 | 2025-10-01 | 2026-03-05 | -4.4% | 16.8% | 328 | 26.8% |
| 54 | 2026-03-05 | 2026-10-05 | -3.9% | 29.2% | 475 | 27.6% |
| 55 | 2023-09-01 | 2024-02-26 | 59.6% | 12.2% | 427 | 23.4% |
| 56 | 2024-02-26 | 2024-10-09 | 16.3% | 23.6% | 484 | 28.0% |
| 57 | 2024-10-09 | 2025-04-27 | 39.6% | 25.0% | 442 | 30.3% |
| 58 | 2025-04-28 | 2025-08-31 | 0.1% | 11.1% | 283 | 29.3% |
| 59 | 2025-08-31 | 2026-04-24 | 14.4% | 16.8% | 498 | 28.1% |
| 60 | 2026-04-24 | 2026-10-05 | -19.2% | 27.3% | 370 | 26.8% |
| 61 | 2023-09-01 | 2024-03-13 | 163.4% | 12.2% | 457 | 24.1% |
| 62 | 2024-03-14 | 2024-08-24 | 1.5% | 14.6% | 355 | 28.5% |
| 63 | 2024-08-24 | 2025-04-07 | -9.8% | 25.0% | 497 | 29.4% |
| 64 | 2025-04-07 | 2025-10-19 | 17.8% | 13.0% | 437 | 28.8% |
| 65 | 2025-10-19 | 2026-04-13 | 3.9% | 16.8% | 369 | 27.9% |
| 66 | 2026-04-13 | 2026-10-05 | -15.1% | 29.2% | 390 | 26.7% |
| 67 | 2023-09-01 | 2024-04-02 | 110.6% | 12.2% | 497 | 24.5% |
| 68 | 2024-04-02 | 2024-08-22 | 21.7% | 14.6% | 308 | 28.6% |
| 69 | 2024-08-22 | 2025-04-10 | 1.8% | 25.0% | 510 | 29.4% |
| 70 | 2025-04-10 | 2025-08-26 | 24.2% | 11.1% | 307 | 29.0% |
| 71 | 2025-08-26 | 2026-05-15 | 5.5% | 16.8% | 554 | 28.7% |
| 72 | 2026-05-15 | 2026-10-05 | -15.5% | 24.8% | 326 | 26.1% |
| 73 | 2023-09-01 | 2024-03-16 | 134.1% | 12.2% | 464 | 23.7% |
| 74 | 2024-03-16 | 2024-09-12 | -6.7% | 23.6% | 388 | 28.4% |
| 75 | 2024-09-12 | 2025-02-06 | 12.7% | 24.3% | 331 | 28.4% |
| 76 | 2025-02-06 | 2025-10-25 | 29.8% | 13.0% | 574 | 30.7% |
| 77 | 2025-10-25 | 2026-03-13 | -8.7% | 16.8% | 288 | 26.4% |
| 78 | 2026-03-13 | 2026-10-05 | -1.8% | 29.2% | 458 | 27.5% |
| 79 | 2023-09-01 | 2024-03-28 | 132.4% | 12.2% | 489 | 24.3% |
| 80 | 2024-03-28 | 2024-08-04 | 18.1% | 10.0% | 280 | 28.2% |
| 81 | 2024-08-04 | 2025-04-30 | 6.3% | 25.0% | 590 | 29.3% |
| 82 | 2025-04-30 | 2025-10-27 | 7.6% | 13.0% | 403 | 29.8% |
| 83 | 2025-10-27 | 2026-04-04 | -14.3% | 16.8% | 333 | 27.0% |
| 84 | 2026-04-04 | 2026-10-05 | 0.4% | 29.2% | 409 | 26.7% |
| 85 | 2023-09-01 | 2024-02-21 | 70.9% | 12.2% | 417 | 23.5% |
| 86 | 2024-02-22 | 2024-10-24 | 29.3% | 23.6% | 531 | 28.1% |
| 87 | 2024-10-24 | 2025-03-31 | -0.1% | 25.0% | 351 | 29.1% |
| 88 | 2025-03-31 | 2025-11-06 | 22.7% | 13.0% | 487 | 29.8% |
| 89 | 2025-11-06 | 2026-05-10 | 19.6% | 16.8% | 383 | 28.2% |
| 90 | 2026-05-10 | 2026-10-05 | -15.4% | 25.7% | 335 | 26.3% |
可复现性
- 数据区间
- 2023-09-01 → 2026-10-05
- 轮数 × 段数
- 15 轮 × 6 段 = 90 次回测
- 随机种子
- d9195c4038dd
- 数据版本
- 438f@202610070238
- 引擎版本
- 2026.10.02-contract-v2
- 发布时间
- 2026-10-07
基于历史数据的模拟。它描述的是这套规则过去会怎么做,而不是将来会怎么做。不构成投资建议 —— 本站不推荐、不评级、不排名任何策略。