CryptoQuant's market cycle signals tool compared current Bitcoin price action with earlier cycles, using a 20-month moving average as its central reference. The analysis was framed as a historical analogy rather than a forecast.
Disclaimer: News content is based on public news sources and provided for information only. It does not constitute investment advice.
On October 16, 2026, Cointelegraph reported on a CryptoQuant post that applied the firm's market cycle signals tool to Bitcoin, comparing present price action with earlier cycles. The firm's framing centred on a 20-month moving average, which its analysis described as a reference point that has coincided with later stages of previous cycles. CryptoQuant presented the comparison as a historical analogy, describing current action as echoing earlier patterns rather than stating an outcome. The published summary did not include specific price levels, dates or quantitative thresholds beyond the moving-average reference itself, and it explicitly attached uncertainty to the sequence it described.
CryptoQuant built its reputation on on-chain data — metrics such as exchange inflows and outflows, miner balances and holder profitability that are derived from Bitcoin's public ledger. Its cycle signals tool extends that approach by aligning the current market against earlier cycles along dimensions such as drawdown depth and time elapsed since the most recent halving. A 20-month moving average covers roughly 600 daily closes, smoothing short-term volatility so that multi-quarter shifts are easier to observe. Because the output is retrospective, it describes how the present resembles the past rather than what happens next. The firm is based in Seoul and was founded in 2018; its research is distributed to both institutional and retail subscribers.
Bitcoin's supply schedule is capped at 21 million coins, with new issuance cut by half roughly every four years; the April 2024 halving reduced the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. That predictable cadence is the main reason analysts line up one cycle against another. Market structure, however, has changed: US spot Bitcoin ETFs began trading in January 2024, introducing a holder base that did not exist in earlier cycles, while derivatives volumes have expanded. Each new participant type alters who is buying, how positions are funded and how quickly information is reflected in prices. With only three completed cycles since 2012, the sample available for comparison is small, which limits how much weight any single analogy can carry.
Cycle research travels through a chain that runs from the analytics provider to financial media to social platforms, and each step tends to compress qualification. Headlines often preserve the directional element of a report — in this case, the reference to record highs — while dropping the conditional language around it. For readers, the useful distinction is between a description of historical patterns, which can be checked against ledger data, and a statement about the future, which cannot. CryptoQuant's post is best understood as a documented observation about how the current cycle compares with earlier ones, published as research rather than as guidance. Based on public news sources.
A 20-month moving average is the mean of Bitcoin's daily closing prices over roughly 600 trading days, plotted as a single smoothed line. Because it averages out short-term swings, it is used by analysts to describe multi-quarter shifts in price rather than day-to-day movement. CryptoQuant referenced it as a cycle reference point, not as a defined trading level.
It is an analytical feature from CryptoQuant, a Seoul-based on-chain data firm founded in 2018, that compares current Bitcoin market conditions with earlier cycles. The tool typically aligns metrics such as drawdown depth and time since the last halving across historical periods. Its output is descriptive: it shows how the present resembles past cycles, not what will happen next.
No. The relationship between a long-term moving average and later record highs is an observation drawn from a very small sample of completed Bitcoin cycles. Only three full cycles have played out since 2012, and market structure has changed substantially with the arrival of spot ETFs and larger derivatives markets. Historical analogy can inform context but cannot establish a causal link or a reliable outcome.
What the Analysis Actually Says
How On-Chain Cycle Tools Are Built
Why Cycle Comparisons Are Contested
How Such Research Reaches Readers
This article is rewritten from public news sources and further processed by AI. It is provided for information only and does not constitute investment advice — refer to the original source for the authoritative version.
Bitcoin's issuance is capped at 21 million coins, and the block reward is cut in half roughly every four years, most recently in April 2024 when it fell from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Because this supply schedule is predictable and public, analysts use halving dates to align one cycle against another. The comparison assumes supply issuance is the dominant driver, an assumption that is contested as other participants enter the market.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs began trading in January 2024, creating a regulated, share-based route to Bitcoin exposure that did not exist in earlier cycles. That introduced new holders, new flows and new reporting patterns that on-chain metrics were not originally designed to capture. As a result, analysts differ on how directly pre-2024 cycle behaviour can be mapped onto the current market.
