When are the final September PMI figures released?

Final manufacturing data are due on October 1, 2026, followed by services and composite figures on October 5, 2026. Because the September numbers are preliminary, the final releases could revise the picture of growth, employment and prices. S&P Global will publish the complete survey results on those dates.

What does the survey say about business confidence?

Business confidence fell to a three-month low and remained further below its long-run average. Firms cited concerns over costs, demand and customer retention as reasons for the weaker sentiment. An S&P Global economist noted that while the economy ended the quarter on a weaker footing, it still sustained growth over the quarter, an improvement on the subdued second quarter.

Australia Flash PMI: Growth Slows to Q3 Low as Manufacturing Contracts

Australia's private sector expanded at its weakest pace of the third quarter in September, with manufacturing slipping into contraction and employment falling for the first time in four months, according to preliminary S&P Global survey data. Input costs rose to a three-month high, keeping inflation risk in focus ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia's September 29 decision.

Disclaimer: News content is based on public news sources and provided for information only. It does not constitute investment advice.

Australia Flash PMI: Growth Slows to Q3 Low as Manufacturing Contracts

Forexlive·9/22/2026, 23:07:25· forex

Composite Growth Eases to Weakest of the Third Quarter

The S&P Global Flash Australia Composite PMI Output Index fell to 50.8 in September from 52.7 in August, according to preliminary survey data released on September 22, 2026. The reading was the fourth consecutive month above the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction, but it was the weakest of the third quarter. Services activity, the main source of growth, slowed to 51.4 from 53.2. Manufacturing was the clearest weak point: the headline index dropped to 49.3 from 52.0, its first sub-50 reading since March, and factory output declined at the fastest pace in 21 months. The results indicate the private sector ended the quarter with only marginal momentum.

Demand and Labour Market Soften

Demand indicators pointed in the same direction. Total new business rose for a third month but at the slowest pace of that run, held back by a renewed fall in manufacturing orders. New export orders declined for the fifth time in six months, again linked to weakness among goods producers. The labour market signal was notable: private sector employment fell for the first time in four months, and although the decline was modest, it was the steepest since October 2020, with job losses spread across sectors. Backlogs of work still increased slightly, indicating that some firms continued to work through existing orders even as new demand softened.

Cost Pressures Reaccelerate, Led by Energy

Price pressures moved in the opposite direction to activity. Input cost inflation reached a three-month high, with survey respondents frequently citing the conflict in the Middle East and its effect on energy and fuel costs as the main driver. Output prices rose at a strong pace that was faster than in August, though S&P Global noted that inflation rates remained well below those seen during the second quarter. The pick-up in cost pressures was concentrated in services, while manufacturers saw some easing in input inflation but longer supplier delivery times. Energy therefore remains a key transmission channel through which external conditions feed into Australia's domestic cost structure, and this matters for how the Reserve Bank of Australia assesses inflation risk.

Mixed Signal Ahead of the RBA's September 29 Decision

The data arrive shortly before the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy decision on September 29, 2026. All four major Australian banks have forecast an increase in the cash rate to 4.60%, and RBA Governor Michele Bullock has flagged inflation risks as higher neutral rates come into focus. The survey presents a mixed picture: softer demand and falling private sector employment point to a cooling economy, while firmer selling prices keep attention on inflation risks. Market pricing had already indicated a high probability of a rate move before the release, so the preliminary survey is one input among many for the central bank. Final manufacturing figures are due on October 1, with services and composite numbers on October 5.

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Frequently asked questions

What is a flash PMI and why does it matter?▾

A flash PMI is an early, preliminary estimate of purchasing managers' activity across manufacturing and services, typically released about a week before the final figures. It is based on a majority of survey responses and gives an early indication of business conditions. A reading above 50 signals expansion, while below 50 signals contraction.

What did Australia's September flash PMI show?▾

The composite output index fell to 50.8 from 52.7, the weakest reading of the third quarter but still above the 50 no-change level. Services slowed to 51.4, while manufacturing dropped to 49.3, its first contraction since March, with factory output falling at the fastest pace in 21 months. Private sector employment also declined for the first time in four months.

Why are energy and fuel costs important in this report?▾

Survey respondents frequently cited the conflict in the Middle East and its effect on energy and fuel costs as the main source of input price pressure. This pushed input cost inflation to a three-month high, with the increase concentrated in services. It matters because energy is a key channel through which global developments feed into Australia's domestic inflation outlook, which the Reserve Bank of Australia monitors closely.

What is the RBA expected to do on September 29?

Key takeaways

Composite Growth Eases to Weakest of the Third Quarter

Demand and Labour Market Soften

Cost Pressures Reaccelerate, Led by Energy

Mixed Signal Ahead of the RBA's September 29 Decision

Business Confidence Falls Further Below Average

Common mistakes to avoid

Reacting to a single headline without reading the full context — one data point is rarely the whole story.
Treating rewritten news as a signal — it describes what happened, never what to do next.
Confusing AI-rewritten content with the original source — always verify important facts against the primary report.

Australia Flash PMI: Growth Slows to Q3 Low as Manufacturing Contracts

Composite Growth Eases to Weakest of the Third Quarter

Demand and Labour Market Soften

Cost Pressures Reaccelerate, Led by Energy

Mixed Signal Ahead of the RBA's September 29 Decision

Frequently asked questions

Key takeaways

Common mistakes to avoid

Related reading

Composite Growth Eases to Weakest of the Third Quarter

Demand and Labour Market Soften

Cost Pressures Reaccelerate, Led by Energy

Mixed Signal Ahead of the RBA's September 29 Decision

Frequently asked questions

Key takeaways

Common mistakes to avoid

Related reading

Business Confidence Falls Further Below Average