Why did gold fall even though the dollar weakened?

Spot gold fell 0.83% to $4,142.55 and silver lost 0.72% to $60.509. The recovery in Treasury yields raises the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as precious metals, a factor often cited when gold struggles on a day the dollar declines.

What did Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee say?

Goolsbee described the labor market as steady and said the inflation side of the Fed's mandate was more important. He left both a hike and a pause available while looking for evidence that inflation is moving toward 2%, indicating that one softer employment report does not settle the policy outlook.

What economic releases are scheduled for next week?

The calendar includes US ISM services on Monday, Fed minutes on Wednesday, ECB meeting accounts on Thursday, and Canadian employment plus University of Michigan sentiment on Friday. The Michigan survey's inflation expectations are among the details likely to draw attention.

US Payrolls Miss Estimates; Nasdaq 100 Sets Record Close as Treasury Yields Reverse Higher

September US payroll growth came in well below expectations with downward revisions and slower wage growth, prompting an initial bond rally that faded. The Nasdaq 100 closed at a record while the dollar ended lower against most major currencies and the Canadian dollar lagged on softer oil.

Disclaimer: News content is based on public news sources and provided for information only. It does not constitute investment advice.

US Payrolls Miss Estimates; Nasdaq 100 Sets Record Close as Treasury Yields Reverse Higher

Forexlive·10/2/2026, 20:57:56· forex

A Broadly Soft September Employment Report

September nonfarm payrolls rose by 29,000, well below the roughly 90,000 economists had expected, while August's gain was revised down to 133,000 from 162,000 and combined July-August revisions subtracted 60,000 jobs. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from 4.1%, and average hourly earnings increased just 0.1% on the month against 0.3% expected, with annual wage growth at 3.0% versus 3.2% expected. Government payrolls fell by 17,000 while private payrolls rose 46,000, with gains concentrated in private education and health services (+20,000), construction (+11,000) and manufacturing (+9,000), while information, financial activities and professional and business services all shed jobs. Household employment rose 406,000 and the labor force expanded by 485,000, lifting the participation rate to 61.8%, which helps explain the higher unemployment rate, while average weekly hours held at 34.4. Over July to September, payroll growth averaged approximately 51,000 per month, a pace well below earlier in the year.

Treasury Yields Reverse the Initial Post-Report Decline

Treasury yields initially fell after the report but reversed course and finished higher across the curve. The 2-year yield ended at 4.8414%, up 5.44 basis points, the 5-year at 5.0733%, up 6.83 basis points, and the 10-year at 5.2939%, up 5.99 basis points, while the 30-year added 4.18 basis points to 5.6448%. The 10-year had traded toward 5.17% immediately after the release before returning to near 5.30%, leaving yields above Thursday's levels. The data reduced expectations for another October Fed hike, with post-release pricing putting implied odds near 15%–16%, but that shift was not enough to sustain a bond rally as the broader inflation and interest-rate outlook remained in focus.

US Equities: Nasdaq 100 Closes at a Record

All major US equity indices finished higher, led by the technology-heavy benchmarks. The Nasdaq 100 rose 306.37 points, or 1.00%, to 30,807.93, a new record closing high. The Nasdaq Composite gained 319.27 points, or 1.19%, to 27,190.86, reaching a new intraday record but finishing below its prior record close near 27,244. The Dow industrials added 250.00 points (+0.49%) to 51,182.11 and the S&P 500 rose 56.39 points (+0.74%) to 7,722.85, while the Russell 2000 gained 0.94% to 2,832.90, indicating buying beyond the largest technology names. Nvidia also traded to a new intraday all-time high but closed below its previous record close.

Currencies and Oil: Dollar Slips, Canadian Dollar Diverges

US jobs reportNasdaq 100Treasury yieldsUS dollarFederal Reserve

Frequently asked questions

What did the September US employment report show?▾

Nonfarm payrolls rose by 29,000 versus roughly 90,000 expected, August was revised down to 133,000, and combined July-August revisions cut 60,000 jobs. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% and average hourly earnings increased 0.1% month-over-month, with annual wage growth at 3.0%, both below expectations. Hiring was concentrated in education and health services, construction and manufacturing, while information, financial activities, and professional and business services lost jobs.

How did Treasury yields respond to the jobs data?▾

Yields initially fell but reversed and closed higher across the curve, with the 10-year ending at 5.2939%, up 5.99 basis points, after trading toward 5.17% right after the release. The 2-year rose 5.44 basis points to 4.8414% and the 30-year added 4.18 basis points to 5.6448%. Post-release pricing lowered the implied probability of an October hike to around 15%–16%.

Why did the Canadian dollar move differently from other major currencies?▾

USDCAD finished at 1.4251, with the US dollar up 0.23% against the loonie, making it the exception among major currencies. Lower oil prices offered a less supportive backdrop for the Canadian dollar after France outlined four-month crude and diesel stockpile releases and G7 leaders confirmed up to 100 million barrels. Late-session WTI futures were at $91.41, down 1.57%.

Key takeaways

A Broadly Soft September Employment Report

Treasury Yields Reverse the Initial Post-Report Decline

US Equities: Nasdaq 100 Closes at a Record

Currencies and Oil: Dollar Slips, Canadian Dollar Diverges

Policy Signals, Metals and Crypto

Common mistakes to avoid

Reacting to a single headline without reading the full context — one data point is rarely the whole story.
Treating rewritten news as a signal — it describes what happened, never what to do next.
Confusing AI-rewritten content with the original source — always verify important facts against the primary report.

US Payrolls Miss Estimates; Nasdaq 100 Sets Record Close as Treasury Yields Reverse Higher

A Broadly Soft September Employment Report

Treasury Yields Reverse the Initial Post-Report Decline

US Equities: Nasdaq 100 Closes at a Record

Currencies and Oil: Dollar Slips, Canadian Dollar Diverges

Frequently asked questions

Key takeaways

Common mistakes to avoid

Related reading

A Broadly Soft September Employment Report

Treasury Yields Reverse the Initial Post-Report Decline

US Equities: Nasdaq 100 Closes at a Record

Currencies and Oil: Dollar Slips, Canadian Dollar Diverges

Frequently asked questions

Key takeaways

Common mistakes to avoid

Related reading

Policy Signals, Metals and Crypto